📊 Intelligence Center — 23/09/2026 07:33 BRT
🔴 1. Market Overview
Nasdaq closed at a record high yesterday, with the NDX up 0.82% to 30,732.40 and the IXIC gaining 0.45% to 27,244.28. The rally was fueled by AI optimism following Nvidia’s blowout Q2 FY2027 earnings, which added over $400 billion in market cap. The S&P 500 ended flat as oil and financial stocks dragged. The Fed approved a rate hike overnight, with Chair Warsh signaling one more hike this year — reinforcing hawkish tightening bets. Gold retreated 0.52% to $4,353.50, while crude fell 1.05% to $89.57 on U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes. The dollar firmed: EUR/USD -0.35% at 1.1413, GBP/USD -0.48% at 1.3282, USD/JPY +0.34% at 157.85. Pre-market futures edge higher, but the Warsh press conference later today is the key catalyst — positioning is cautious.
🌍 2. Global Moves by Country/Region
- Latin America: EPU (Peru) surged +2.13% — leading broad EM gains. EWW (Mexico) +1.03%, BBD (Brazil ADR) +1.42%. EIDO (Indonesia) bucked the trend, -1.62%.
- Asia: EWY (South Korea) +1.83%, THD (Thailand) +1.40%. NIO +1.36%, PDD +1.33% — China ADRs supported by AI momentum.
- Europe: EWN (Netherlands) +1.08% on ASML +2.14%. EZA (South Africa) +1.35%. Eurozone PMIs came in above expectations (Composite 53.1 vs 51.7 prior), adding to risk-on tone.
- US Dollar Index: strengthened broadly — tech outperformance is dollar-positive in this context. Watch for PMI data at 09:45 ET.
🏢 3. ADRs in Focus
SHOP led the pack, rallying +7.12% to $147.74 — momentum from Nvidia’s AI read-across and e-commerce optimism.
ARM +3.19% at $333.20 — chip architecture demand narrative remains intact.
ASML +2.14% at $1,747.90 — lithography exposure tied to AI capex cycle.
TSM +1.54% at $452.00 — foundry demand underpinned by Nvidia’s guidance.
LULU +2.40% at $103.73 — consumer discretionary supported by macro resilience.
BBD +1.42% at $3.57 — Brazil value play, benefiting from EM inflow.
NIO +1.36%, PDD +1.33% — China tech continues to track U.S. AI sentiment.
📅 4. Economic Calendar
23 September (Today):
- 09:45 ET — [HIGH] S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (prev 53.6)
- 09:45 ET — [HIGH] S&P Global Services PMI (prev 55.8)
- 10:30 ET — [HIGH] Crude Oil Inventories (prev -0.7M)
24 September (Tomorrow):
- 03:30 ET — [HIGH] SNB Interest Rate Decision (prev 0.00%)
- 08:30 ET — [HIGH] Initial Jobless Claims (prev 201K)
- 10:00 ET — [HIGH] New Home Sales (prev 615K)
Fed Chair Warsh press conference — no scheduled time in calendar, but active market event.
📰 5. News That Matter
- Fed Rate Hike: Approved overnight. Warsh holds a press conference — tone will dictate rate path expectations. Market pricing one more hike this year.
- Nvidia Earnings: Q2 FY2027 results triggered +$400B market cap surge. AI confidence at multi-year highs. NVDA is the bellwether for tech direction.
- U.S.-Iran Diplomacy: Oil prices dropped on talks at UN meeting. CL=F -1.05%. Diplomacy risk is real for energy sector positioning.
- Gold Retreat: -0.52% to $4,353.50 on hawkish Fed comments — real rates rising, gold under pressure.
- Eurozone PMIs Beat: Services 53 vs 49.9 prior, Composite 53.1 — supports EUR but dollar strength dominates.
⚡ 6. Signals & Correlations
- Tech vs Commodities: NDX up 0.82%, CL=F down 1.05%, GC=F down 0.52% — rotation out of hard assets into growth, driven by AI earnings.
- Dollar Strength: +0.34% vs JPY, +0.35% vs EUR — dollar up on rate hike confirmation. Correlation with gold negative (-0.52%) is tightening.
- Oil Diplomacy Risk: CL=F -1.05% on Iran talks — if diplomacy stalls, expect snap-back. For now, lower oil is net positive for S&P ex-energy.
- Nvidia Effect: SHOP +7.12%, ARM +3.19%, ASML +2.14% — AI supply chain is the dominant beta trade. Watch for profit-taking post-Warsh.
🎯 7. Daily Watchlist
- Fed Chair Warsh: Any hawkish nuance could trigger a 10-15bp move in 2Y yields and a 0.5-1% NDX pullback.
- S&P Global PMIs (09:45 ET): Services above 55.8 supports soft landing narrative. Below 53 would worry.
- Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 ET): Large draw would counter diplomacy-driven selloff.
- Nvidia (NVDA): After earnings gap, wait for consolidation before adding. Support at $130, resistance at $145.
- Gold (GC=F): Below $4,350, next support at $4,300. No dip-buying until Fed clarity.
- JPY (USD/JPY): Above 158.00 opens path to 159.00 — carry trade back in play.
